Obama: Hope For The Auto Industry?
I didn’t vote for Barak Obama, but if I knew what I knew today, I would have.
Not because I agree with any of his opinions, viewpoints or initiatives, but because he really has created national hope. And, what’s keeping us from selling cars today isn’t what’s in our customers’ wallets, but what’s between their ears.
Consumer confidence is the primary factor* preventing people from buying automobiles, not the credit crunch, unemployment or even necessarily housing values. Let’s look at the fundamentals:
Credit: Interest rates are at historic lows, which will allow consumers to buy more automobile for their dollar. More for your monthly payment is one of the reasons behind the housing boom. Automobiles are still fantastic collateral for banks; they’re not subject to as much arbitrary valuations and you go get it if the customer doesn’t pay. But banks lack confidence in consumers and are fearful of their shareholders – so they hold back.
Unemployment: If you look at unemployment statistics, a great economy has an unemployment rate of 3%; a horrible economy has an unemployment rate of 6%. That means in the worst economy that 94% of the country is still employed. But people are fearful of losing their jobs.
Housing: Foreclosure rates are minuscule (not that they’re unimportant). In the city with the worst foreclosure rate in the country, it’s 1.1% – that means 99% of people are still making their mortgages. And during the housing boom, people didn’t get rich until they sold their home. But they felt rich, so they bought. Now people feel poor. Remember, people bought homes and overpaid for them because of unjustified confidence in the housing market.
Barak Obama certainly appears to be bringing patient hope and a level head to the country, which is what we need much more than economic stimulus.
On top of that, he’s a proponent of a bail out the auto industry. While I believe this flys in the face of a free market economy, I’m okay with it because I think it’s a little like cheating on a diet. If the government helps the auto industry right now, the Big 3 (and other manufacturers for that matter) will still need to come up with a viable business plan to contend in the future. The bailout just helps ease the pain in the short term.
All in all, I think Obama (or more realistically people’s belief in Obama), will be good for the industry.
*I don’t mean that economic factors aren’t involved.